Global online television and video revenues are forecast to reach $129 billion in 2023, which is more than double the $53 billion estimated for 2017. Around $16 billion will be added in 2018. Combined revenues for online television and video plus pay television are expected rise over the period, with the latter continuing to be worth more. However, another projection suggests a rather better outlook for pay television and less growth for online video.
Digital TV Research forecasts that online television and video revenues will exceed $1 billion in 17 countries in 2023, up from 10 in 2017. The top five countries will attract 69% of worldwide online television and video revenues by 2023, down from 73% in 2017.
The United States will remain the largest market, forecast to be worth $47.8 billion in 2023, compared to $22.9 billion in 2017 and $28.8 billion in 2018. However, its share of global revenues will fall to 37% in 2023, compared to 43% in 2017.
China will remain the second largest market, forecast to be worth nearly $26.0 billion in 2023, up from $8.8 billion and $12.2 billion in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
The United Kingdom will be the third most valuable market for online television and video, with revenues of $6.8 billion in 2023, up from almost $3.0 billion in 2017 and $3.7 billion in 2018.
To put that in perspective, the communications regulator Ofcom reported that the total value of the television and audiovisual content market in the United Kingdom in 2017 was £13.6 billion, or about $17.5 billion. Pay-television platform operators generated almost half of that. Ofcom reported that the online audiovisual market was worth £2.3 billion in 2017, which was approaching $3 billion. Of that, almost 40%, or around $1.2 billion was from online video subscription services.
Digital TV Research predicts that global pay television revenues will decline to $183 billion in 2023, down from $202 billion in 2017. Revenues in North America are forecast to fall to $81 billion in 2023, compared to $103 billion in 2017.
So, while global online television and video revenue is forecast to rise by a dramatic 143% between 2017 and 2023, from a relatively low base, pay television revenues are expected to fall by only 10%.
Or, put another way, the combination of online television and video plus pay television revenues are forecast to rise by $57 billion or 22% between 2017 and 2023.
For another perspective, as previously reported by informitv, the PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook estimated the online video market to be worth $36 billion in 2017 and forecast that will rise to $58 billion in 2022, while it predicts that pay television revenue will rise from $212 billion in 2017 to $226 billion in 2022.
That implies online video growth of 61% and pay television subscription growth of 7%, or total growth of 15% between 2017 and 2022.