An independent analyst suggests that the possibility of switching off digital terrestrial television in the United Kingdom in 2035 could leave millions of viewers without a television service. He is critical of the assumption that transmitters could be turned off in 2035.
Mathew Horsman, formerly of the Mediatique consultancy, told The Observer: “I think the government’s being taken along by this consensus view of 2035 that the BBC is pushing and my fear is that we’re going down a route with blinders on, going hell bent for leather to get to an outcome.”
His report suggests that commercial public service broadcasters ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5, would give up around £768 million in advertising revenue by shutting down the premium they can charge on broadcast adverts. “Early switch-off could also threaten universality, eroding justification for the universal licence fee.”
Rather than switching off digital terrestrial television transmissions entirely, he recommends reducing the number of multiplexes from six to three and extending broadcast television to 2045.
The report was funded by the transmission company Arqiva, although Mathew Horsman says his recommendation: “has nothing to do with protecting its interests.”
Arqiva is a leading supporter of a Broadcast 2040+ campaign to extend the future of digital terrestrial television. The campaign has expended its membership to 37 organisations.
The current licences for ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 end in 2034, which is the same year that their transmission contracts with Arqiva end. The BBC has a transmission contract through to 2030. Its current charter runs until the end of 2027.
The government is currently engaged in a consultation on the future of television distribution in the United Kingdom. Its forum was launched in November 2024.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport has commissioned follow up research to understand the specific preferences, motivations, and barriers regarding television viewing among a variety of groups including rural, older, and low-income households. A decision is expected in 2026.