Western European countries will lose nearly 9 million television subscribers between 2023 and 2029. That would be a fall from 101 million to around 93 million, a reduction of 8%. Market penetration will be down from 58% to 53%. Sky is expected to lose nearly five million satellite subscribers but hopes to gain online customers.

The forecast comes from Digital TV Research. Television subscriber counts will fall for 14 of the 18 Western European countries covered between 2023 and 2029.

Germany will lose 2.7 million subscribers, with the United Kingdom down by 2.0 million, Italy by 1.5 million, and France by 1.1 million. Spain will lose 0.3 million and the Netherlands 0.2 million, with other countries losing 2.2 million between them.

Direct-to-home satellite services will lose 6.4 million subscribers, while telco television will gain 1 million.

“Pay satellite TV will be the biggest loser because most DTH platforms do not offer broadband access,” said Simon Murray of Digital TV Research. “This is not true of Sky, which wants to convert its satellite TV subscribers to its streaming platforms. Sky will lose 1.8 million satellite TV subs in both Germany and the UK as well as a further 1.3 million in Italy – or nearly 5 million in its five territories between 2023 and 2029.”

The number of television subscribers in the United Kingdom is forecast to fall from 13.3 million 2023 to 11.2 million television subscribers in 2029.

Meanwhile, revenues from online video services in Western Europe are forecast to grow from $31 billion in 2023 to $48 billion in 2029. Netflix is forecast to be the largest beneficiary, with a forecast $10.7 billion in revenue, with less than 10% of that expected to come from advertising.

Although traditional television subscriptions will decline, this will be less dramatic than in the United States, where losses of a further 10 million subscribers are forecast. There will still be over 90 million homes in Europe paying for television by the end of the decade.