Having risen rapidly in recent years, revenues from online video services will continue to increase but at a lower rate. Global revenues from online video subscription services will reach $127 billion by 2029, up from $107 billion in 2023. Revenues for advertising supported online video services will rise to $69 billion, up from $39 billion in 2023.
The six leading platforms based in the United States will add $12 billion in online video subscription revenues between 2023 and 2029 to take their combined total to $72 billion.
Netflix will continue to take the most subscription revenue, expected to reach $33.5 billion by 2029, which is more than Disney+, HBO Max, and Paramount+ combined, with $13.6 billion, $8.2 billion, and $6.8 billion respectively. Amazon is forecast to account for $7.4 billion, while Apple TV+ will have $2.1 billion.
For online video services supported by advertising, the United States will account for over $21 billion in revenue in 2029, or 31% of the global total, down from 40% in 2023, as other countries are expected to show increased growth. Revenue in the United Kingdom is forecast to grow to $3.6 billion, making it the third largest market after the United States and China.
Hybrid services, combining subscriptions supported by advertising, are expected to triple in revenue to $20 billion. These are expected to be split roughly equally between subscription and advertising revenue.
Netflix will account for almost a third of these hybrid revenues, with $6.4 billion, of which $3.1 billion will come from advertising.
Advertising for free online video channels will reach $17 billion in 2029, up from $8 billion in 2023.
The forecasts, from Simon Murray at Digital TV Research, show lower advertising growth than previously predicted, as platforms have delayed or scaled back their expansion plans. “These forecasts reflect the new reality,” he writes. “Subscriptions are stuttering as the market matures and consolidates. Advertising growth will be lower than our previous forecasts.”
He suggests that the boom years for online video services in the United States are over, with total revenues of $82 billion in 2029, up from $74 billion in 2023, with most of the growth coming from advertising revenue.