The number of traditional television subscribers will rise slightly over the next five years, but revenues will decline by a little over 10%. This decimation in revenue hardly amounts to terminal decline. The market is still forecast to be worth $136 billion in 2027, serving over a billion homes worldwide.
The number of homes subscribing to a traditional television service is estimated to be 1,014 million in 2022 and Digital TV Research forecasts that it will to grow marginally to 1,030 million in 2027. Most of the countries gaining pay television subscribers will be developing nations, where average revenue per subscriber is relatively low.
Over the same period, total traditional television subscription revenues are forecast to fall from $153 billion to $136 billion. That is a decline of $17 billion, or 11.1%.
Between 2021 and 2027, 86 countries will gain television subscribers and 52 countries will see a net subscriber loss. The greatest loss will be in the United States, declining from 68 million in 2022 to just over 60 million in 2027, down from a peak of 105 million in 2010.
Revenues will decline in 70 countries between 2021 and 2027. Revenues in the United States will fall by $19 billion. Global satellite television revenues will drop by $14 billion, with digital cable down by $10 billion. Analogue cable will lose a further $1 billion. IPTV will grow slightly as subscriber numbers increase.
The number of traditional television subscribers in Western Europe is forecast to decline from over 105 million in 2022 to just under 100 million in 2027, with revenues declining from $26 billion to $22 billion. Over the same period, online video subscriber revenues in Western Europe are expected to grow from just under $20 billion to just under $30 billion a year.