The number of online video subscriptions will increase by 124 million in 2019 and grow by a further 338 million over the following three years to reach 970 million in 2024. There are still expected to be half as many unique online video subscribers as homes paying for television services.
These Digital TV Research forecasts are for total online video subscriptions. Many homes will have more than one subscription. The average is forecast to increase from 1.43 subscriptions per subscriber in 2018 to 1.78 in 2018.
The net number of online video subscribers is forecast to increase from 356 million in 2018 to 531 million in 2024.
Netflix is forecast to have 219 subscriptions in 2024, followed by Amazon with 127 million, Disney+ with 82 million, and Apple TV with 13 million. These four providers will have 45% of the total.
China, in which none of the four main services currently operate, will have 291 million subscriptions, while other services will have 238 million subscriptions between them.
Netflix will see its dominance challenged by other online contenders but will nevertheless add 79 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024 and will double its revenues from $15 billion to $35 billion a year.
Meanwhile the number of homes subscribing to television services passed a billion in 2018 and is headed for 1.10 billion in 2024, with three-quarters of operators gaining subscribers.
The United States will lose nearly 10 million television subscribers between 2018 and 2024. About 28 of the 138 countries will lose television subscribers between 2018 and 2024.
However, 110 countries will gain television subscribers. Asia Pacific will contribute six of the top 10 countries by the number of television subscriber additions. From the 81 million additional television subscribers between 2018 and 2024, 29 million will come from India, 16 million from China and 8 million from Indonesia.
China will account for a third of all television subscribers, with 356 million expected by 2024. With India expected to contribute 187 million, these two countries will together provide half of the television subscribers in the world in 2024.