There will be over 220 million homes worldwide with an Ultra HD television at the end of 2018, an increase of nearly 50% in twelve months. There may be more than 600 million in 2023. North America will continue to lead in adoption, with 71% of homes having an Ultra HD television by 2023. The largest market will be the Asia Pacific region, with over 275 million sets in 2023.

Strategy Analytics forecasts that of more than 600 million homes with an Ultra HD television by 2023, 8% of them will be 8K ready. That means more than 11 million units sold in 2023, representing a 6% share of the total Ultra HD market.

By 2023, the firm predicts that 3.9% of Ultra HD television homes in North America will own 8K displays, compared to 4.1% in the Asia Pacific region and 1.7% in Western Europe.

UHD Television homes worldwide 2018-2023. Source: Strategy Analytics

“The success of Ultra HDTV has been driven by technology adoption rather than content and services,” says David Mercer, the author of the Strategy Analytics report. “4K video and TV services are now becoming more widely available, meeting the expectations of 4K Ultra HDTV owners for the best quality TV experience.

“Our expectations for 8K services should be cautious: while Japan has now launched 8K TV in preparation for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the rest of the world will be slower to follow suit, given that the number of homes with 8K-ready TVs will remain low until the mid 2020s.”

David Watkins of Strategy Analytics added, “Owners of 8K TVs will primarily be watching 4K and HD content, while the TV’s image processors will do a good job of scaling most content to give impressive images.” He also noted that other attributes, such high dynamic range and high frame rate also contribute to image quality.

“This year, we’re expecting annual 4K UHD TV shipments to power past 100 million units,” said Tristan Veale at Futuresource.

“Netflix is the key service driving UHD SVoD spend. Depending on the country, around 20-30% of subscribers have opted for the UHD premium tier,” he said. “UHD Blu-ray content continues to progress ahead of the expectations of many, with global consumer spend on track to reach $360 million this year.”

“Broadcast UHD has also received a welcome boost in 2018, with February’s Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup accelerating many broadcasters’ plans to introduce 4K UHD coverage,” he said.

Although overall television shipments in the third quarter of 2018 were flat compared to the previous year, the average screen size increased, as reported by IHS Markit.

Global shipments of 60-inch and larger TV screen sizes in the third quarter increased more than 40% year on year, with even stronger growth in North America and emerging markets, as prices fell to new lows for 65-inch and 75-inch sizes.

The share of 4K Ultra HD shipments reached a record high of nearly 44% but accounted for over 70% by value due to sustained premiums and larger average size.