Netflix is now available almost everywhere, but still has a long way to go to extend its success in the United States to the rest of the world. Is this the future of television? YouTube executive Robert Kyncl, who previously worked at Netflix, predicts that by 2020 three quarters of all video will be delivered by the internet rather than television and that watching this will be the single largest way people spend their free time by the end of the decade. That may seem unlikely, but as Bill Gates memorably wrote, we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.